臭氧污染动态源贡献分析方法及应用初探

论文创新提出了基于RSM/CMAQ臭氧污染动态源贡献分析方法,并以佛山市顺德区2014年10月为例,分析了不同区域的人为可控源NO_x和VOCs减排情景下(10%、70%和100%)对本地O_3浓度变化的量化贡献.研究结果表明顺德区O_3的人为可控比例约43%,且受区域排放影响非常明显,主导上风向广州排放源总贡献(14%)超过顺德本地贡献(7%).VOCs的减排可有效削减顺德区O_3浓度,当减排力度较小时(12%),若仅控制区域NO_x排放将导致顺德区O_3浓度上升,随着减排力度的加大,区域NO_x的削减贡献会反超VOCs.RSM/CMAQ动态源贡献分析方法可为空气质量管理提供科学决策依据.     

Evaluation of health benefit using BenMAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city(land area:7287 km2)of Guangdong province in South China.The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion.During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010,the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality.In this paper,we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation,fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits.This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone,which provides more reliable results.The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations.The results show that the mean PM_2.5concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5μg/m~3 compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures.From the analysis,we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths,1869 cases of hospital admission,and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits.The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY,with the avoided premature death contributing 90%of this figure.The research demonstrates that Ben MAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making.     

Spatiotemporal coupling/decoupling of planktonic larvae and benthic settlement in decapods in the Scottish east coast

Settlement patterns and the relationship between meroplanktonic larvae and settlement in decapods were studied on the Scottish east coast. Artificial settlement substrates (ASS), deployed at two locations (sandy vs. rocky sea substrates), were employed to collect megalopae and newly settled juveniles. Abundance of meroplanktonic larvae was used as an indicator of larval supply. The results showed a clear seasonality in settlement rates, and in some cases, significant differences between sites were detected. Nevertheless, the interference of the ASS with the surrounding habitat limits the study of spatial variability in settlement rates. Significant cross-correlation was found between the abundance of megalopae and juveniles in the collectors and planktonic larval abundance a month earlier. For individual species, this relationship was observed only in Pisidia longicornis. Complexities caused by the great variety of pre- and post-settlement processes, alongside effects of secondary dispersals of early juveniles may have obscured the relationship between meroplanktonic larvae and juveniles in other species.     

Inorganic arsenic levels in rice milk exceed EU and US drinking water standards

Under EU legislation, total arsenic levels in drinking water should not exceed 10 microg l(-1), while in the US this figure is set at 10 microg l(-1) inorganic arsenic. All rice milk samples analysed in a supermarket survey (n = 19) would fail the EU limit with up to 3 times this concentration recorded, while out of the subset that had arsenic species determined (n = 15), 80% had inorganic arsenic levels above 10 microg l(-1), with the remaining 3 samples approaching this value. It is a point for discussion whether rice milk is seen as a water substitute or as a food, there are no EU or US food standards highlighting the disparity between water and food regulations in this respect.     

Volcanic disasters in Latin America and the 13th November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia

Volcanic eruptions in Latin America have claimed about 61,000 lives since 1600 A.D. and the region's volcanoes are responsible for about a quarter of the world's fatalities from this type of hazard. Nearly all loss of life from volcanism in Latin America is due to pyroclastic surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars or volcanic mudflows. Lahars generated during the 13th November, 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia claimed 25,000 lives, underscoring the great hazard from lahars, which can be generated from the fifty-six, active, ice-capped Central and South American volcanoes during even very small eruptions. The probability of specific prediction of the timing of such events is currently low, whereas the probability of a general prediction of volcanic eruption is high, giving sufficient time to install telemetered lahar alarm systems, which could largely avoid the loss of life.     

基于曲面响应建模的PM2.5可控人为源贡献解析

以东莞市PM_(2.5)重污染月份为例,使用强力法(Brute Force)和RSM/CMAQ曲面响应模型法分别解析了珠三角地区人为源排放对东莞PM_(2.5)的贡献,以及区域传输的可控人为源SO_2、NO_x和一次颗粒物(PM)在不同控制比例下(25%、50%、75%和100%)对东莞PM_(2.5)的累积浓度贡献.强力法研究结果表明,2014年1月珠三角地区人为源二次转化对东莞市PM_(2.5)的贡献(约58.10%)大于一次PM排放贡献(约41.90%),其中,人为源NH_3排放贡献最大,约占总量的21.66%.RSM/CMAQ动态源贡献结果显示,东莞市PM_(2.5)的人为可控源排放贡献(SO_2、NO_x和一次PM)占比为82.17%,受本地排放影响较大,且叠加区域排放的影响;一次PM减排对PM_(2.5)环境浓度的贡献高于仅减排SO_2和NO_x.在减排比例较低时,一次PM减排可有效削减东莞市PM_(2.5)浓度;随控制比例加大,二次前体物(SO_2和NO_x)减排对东莞市PM_(2.5)浓度削减率的影响加大.进一步使用HYSPLIT模式和轨迹聚类分析方法研究了2014年1月东莞市PM_(2.5)污染传输过程.结果显示,该时段共有6条长、短距离污染传输路径,污染物主要来自东莞市东、东北及东南方向,途经其上风向区域(惠州、深圳和广州等)传输至东莞;惠州是各主导上风向出现频率最高的城市,因而其区域传输对东莞PM_(2.5)的贡献也较大,深圳次之.     

Freshwater leeches (Hirudinea) as a screening tool for detecting organic contaminants in the environment

In earlier work, we found that leeches from an industrially polluted creek bioaccumulated chlorophenols to much higher concentrations than other resident benthic invertebrates and fish. We suggested that leeches may have significant potential as biomonitors for these and other organic contaminants in the environment. In this study, we compared the bioaccumulation and depuration of 16 organic compounds, including eight chlorophenols (CPs), lindane, DDT and four derivatives, benzothiazole (BT) and 2-(Methylthio)benzothiazole (MMBT) for three species of leeches. Dina dubia had the highest bioaccumulation capacity for most contaminants, but residues persisted longest in Erpobdella punctata. Helobdella stagnalis appeared capable of degrading some compounds. Half lives of CPs, DDT and DDT derivatives were generally longer than one month. In contrast, half lives were only 1 day for lindane, 1–2.5 days for MMBT and 7 days for BT despite very high initial tissue concentrations of the latter two compounds. Bioconcentration factors for contaminants in leeches were higher than those reported for other aquatic organisms. Half lives for lindane, DDT and DDT derivatives were consistent with the literature for other organisms, but half lives for CPs were much longer. The results suggest that leeches would be excellent biomonitors of both continuous and intermittent contamination of a waterway with CPs and DDT, as they retain these compounds for long periods after exposure. Their usefulness as a screening tool for lindane and benzothiazoles would be limited to chronically contaminated environments.     

Effects of ultraviolet radiation on toad early life stages

Background  Exposure to harmful levels of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB), a component of solar radiation, has been suggested as a potential cause of amphibian declines. Methods  We measured solar radiation (UVB, ultraviolet-A, and visible) wavebands in breeding ponds of Bufo boreas (boreal toad, a montane species that has undergone severe population declines) and Bufo woodhousii (Woodhouse’s toad, a plains toad that has not experienced declines) and examined tolerances of these species to simulated solar UVB exposures in the laboratory. Results  We found larvae of both species to be tolerant of simulated solar UVB in excess of solar UVB levels observed in their breeding ponds. B. boreas tadpoles were more tolerant of simulated solar UVB exposure than B. woodhousii tadpoles, possibly because of greater amounts of photoprotective melanin in B. boreas skin. Conclusions  UVB levels observed in B. boreas habitats do not currently appear to constitute a threat to the survival of these animals; however, long-term (>1 month) exposure to UVB levels comparable to levels associated with the water interface appears to reduce survival in B. woodhousii tadpoles. Therefore, future increases in surface and water column UVB radiation in bufonid habitats might pose significant survival risks to B. boreas or B. woodhousii populations.     

Cystic fibrosis prenatal diagnosis: Confirmation of an equivocal microvillar enzyme result by direct analysis of the common gene mutation

A child was tentatively diagnosed as having cystic fibrosis, based on neonatal presentation with severe gastrointestinal complications; the diagnosis was not confirmed biochemically and no tissues were available for DNA analysis. The mother presented in her subsequent pregnancy, and microvillar enzyme analysis of cell-free amniotic fluid at both 18 and 20 weeks gestation gave equivocal results. The pregnancy was terminated voluntarily because of a trend towards abnormal enzyme assay results on the second amniocentesis. Retrospectively, fetal tissues were found to be homozygous for the most common mutation of the cystic fibrosis gene (AF₅₀₈), which confirmed the prenatal assessment and suggested that the first infant of the couple was probably also affected by the disease.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality.The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO₂ concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM_2.5 can also decline by 3–15 μg m^?3 (4–25%) due to the lower SO₂ and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO_x emissions, NO_x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2–14 μg m^?3 (3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O₃) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O₃ concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30 ppb.